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paul martzen
Member
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Posted: May 1, 2025 Post Subject: Boatable Spill flows expected through May, 2025
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| Expected peak spill flows likely less than 3500 cfs in mid May.
From SCE
2025 is a Spill Year and the schedule SCE is to follow for down ramping is Schedule C (combined as C/B-High Storage in the LTOR). As it is a spill year, SCE will also be providing weekly forecasts by Tuesday at 5:00pm until no additional boating flows are forecasted. Although 2025 is a spill year, it is also a Below Normal year and as such the timing and magnitude of spills are more difficult to predict. Natural spill started in late April (peaking just below 1000 cfs) and then tapered off due to a cold front moving into the area. SCE is currently forecasting similar smaller, short-duration, “initial” spill conditions to occur over the next two weeks as inflows can vary dramatically, have a high degree of uncertainty, and are very temperature and precipitation dependent.
SCE currently anticipates that peak runoff flows will occur around mid-May and expects peak spill flows will not likely exceed 3,500 cfs average daily flow, so SCE would begin downramping at the largest observed daily flow. SCE also currently anticipates that spills will be greater than 500 cfs but less than 2,000 cfs, which will require SCE to increase flows in the reach to provide a minimum of two boating days at ≥2000 cfs before downramping according to the schedule, currently targeting Friday, May 16th, 2025.
Attached is our May 1 forecast, which includes the spill season’s projected timing, magnitude, and duration of boating flows.
Some additional updates on flow and reservoir elevations are provided below:
Announcement: SCE has installed a redundant logger at the compliance gage for the San Joaquin Reach below Redinger Lake to help with real-time flow data dissemination to the Boater Community. This datasource has been provided to Dreamflows and is available on their website (San Joaquin - Below Redinger Lake) and is linked from our current Kisters website.
SCE will continue to use the SCE Kister’s website: Home - SCE (kisters.net) for the LTOR, posting weekly forecasts, and real-time flow and reservoir level information for the Big Creek system.
SCE has also posted the Water Year Outlook for all of SCE’s reservoirs and safety reminders when recreating near dams on our Public site here: https://www.sce.com/about-us/community/camp-edison/big-creek
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Paul Martzen
Fresno, CA
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