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 Topic:  Chili Bar - Normal Water Year 

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Posted to flow site: So. American - At Chili BarLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
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chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 21, 2009Post Subject: Chili Bar - Normal Water Year
Thought it's time to start a new thread. In case you haven't been following along, the water year type recently changed from "Super Dry" to "Normal".

SMUD today shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue Apr 21 831 AF
Wed Apr 22 496 AF
Thu Apr 23 831 AF
Fri Apr 24 831 AF
Sat Apr 25 897 AF
Sun Apr 26 897 AF
Mon Apr 27 831 AF
Tue Apr 28 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 450 cfs. Don't Panic! This is only the average flow; expect fluctuations.

Note low on Wednesdays, moderate the rest of the week, and a bit higher on weekends. What these numbers tell me is that SMUD is planning to follow the schedule ("dry" Wednesdays, releases the rest of the week, better releases on weekends). Of course, they'll release more and/or longer than promised when they feel the need, they just don't know when that'll be yet.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 29, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Wed Apr 29 496 AF
Thu Apr 30 831 AF
Fri May 1 831 AF
Sat May 2 897 AF
Sun May 3 897 AF
Mon May 4 831 AF
Tue May 5 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 450 cfs. Don't Panic! This is only the average flow; expect fluctuations.

Last week, I detected minimal correlation between their predictions and reality (reality was higher flows than predicted), so am assuming the same will hold true this week. Bottom line: expect at least the scheduled release flows, and actual releases may well be significantly higher.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 5, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue May 5 831 AF
Wed May 6 672 AF
Thu May 7 831 AF
Fri May 8 831 AF
Sat May 9 897 AF
Sun May 10 897 AF
Mon May 11 831 AF
Tue May 12 831 AF

See previous posts (above) for clues as to what all this might mean.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 12, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue May 12 831 AF
Wed May 13 532 AF
Thu May 14 831 AF
Fri May 15 831 AF
Sat May 16 897 AF
Sun May 17 897 AF
Mon May 18 831 AF
Tue May 19 831 AF

See previous posts (above) for clues as to what all this might mean.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 19, 2009
Good news! The SF American is now officially designated as a Below Normal water year (as opposed to Super Dry), which means that this schedule is in effect. The Below Water designation will persist until February 2010, at which point the situation will be re-evaluated.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 19, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue May 19 5705 AF
Wed May 20 5720 AF
Thu May 21 5660 AF
Fri May 22 5552 AF
Sat May 23 5422 AF
Sun May 24 5422 AF
Mon May 25 5422 AF
Tue May 26 5422 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2700 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 26, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue May 26 4255 AF
Wed May 27 4140 AF
Thu May 28 4080 AF
Fri May 29 4020 AF
Sat May 30 3960 AF
Sun May 31 3900 AF
Mon June 1 3900 AF
Tue June 2 3840 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2000 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 3, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue June 2 3005 AF
Wed June 3 2980 AF
Thu June 4 2925 AF
Fri June 5 2850 AF
Sat June 6 2735 AF
Sun June 7 2615 AF
Mon June 8 2615 AF
Tue June 9 2615 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1350 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 11, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Thu June 11 1665 AF
Fri June 12 1646 AF
Sat June 13 1632 AF
Sun June 14 1618 AF
Mon June 15 1604 AF
Tue June 16 1590 AF
Wed June 17 1576 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1300 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 17, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Wed June 17 1597 AF
Thu June 18 1564 AF
Fri June 19 1521 AF
Sat June 20 1463 AF
Sun June 21 1463 AF
Mon June 22 1463 AF
Tue June 23 1463 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 730 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jul 2, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Wed July 1 716 AF
Thu July 2 831 AF
Fri July 3 831 AF
Sat July 4 1207 AF
Sun July 5 1207 AF
Mon July 6 831 AF
Tue July 7 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 600 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jul 14, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue July 14 831 AF
Wed July 15 496 AF
Thu July 16 831 AF
Fri July 17 831 AF
Sat July 18 1207 AF
Sun July 19 1207 AF
Mon July 20 831 AF
Tue July 21 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 600 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jul 21, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue July 21 831 AF
Wed July 22 496 AF
Thu July 23 831 AF
Fri July 24 831 AF
Sat July 25 1207 AF
Sun July 26 1207 AF
Mon July 27 831 AF
Tue July 28 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 600 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jul 28, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue July 28 831 AF
Wed July 28 500 AF
Thu July 30 831 AF
Fri July 31 831 AF
Sat Aug 1 1207 AF
Sun Aug 2 1207 AF
Mon Aug 3 831 AF
Tue Aug 4 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 600 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Aug 4, 2009
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

Tue Aug 4 831 AF
Wed Aug 5 496 AF
Thu Aug 6 831 AF
Fri Aug 7 831 AF
Sat Aug 8 1207 AF
Sun Aug 9 1207 AF
Mon Aug 10 831 AF
Tue Aug 11 831 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 600 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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